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in Goals, Runners' Roundup, Running, Running Tips · July 16, 2025

How to Choose a Running Goal Time for a Race

It’s always exciting to start a new training cycle. Usually you are feeling refreshed, optimistic, and ready to work hard. Once you pick a race you may be starting to think about what your goal time should be. Maybe you just ran a race and you want to beat that time. Or maybe you are going for a certain barrier like 2 hours in the half marathon or 4 hours in the marathon. It’s really important to choose a realistic, obtainable running goal time. If you choose a goal that is too fast for your current fitness you will likely run your workouts too hard and end up overtrained, burnt out, or injured and you won’t reach your race goal.

It's always exciting to start a new training cycle. Once you pick a goal race you may be starting to think about what your goal time should be. It's really important to choose a realistic, obtainable running goal time. If you choose a goal that is too fast for your current fitness you will likely run your workouts too hard and end up overtrained, burnt out, or injured and you won't reach your race goal.

Remember that there are other goals you can work towards in a race other than just a time goal. You can choose an appropriate race goal before beginning your training cycle. If you are planning to focus on a goal time for a race it’s important to train appropriately. Before you start training you can choose a goal time, but it’s best to be willing to adjust that goal as you progress through your training cycle and get closer to your race.

Determine your current fitness level

If you recently ran a race that was the same distance as the race you are training for, that is your starting point. Also, if you ran a similar distance, you can use that to predict your time in another distance. If it has been a long time since you raced or you have never raced then there are other ways to figure out your current fitness level.

If you are training for your first race ever, especially if it is a longer race like a marathon, it’s best to just set the goal to finish. Don’t worry about a goal time! Finishing alone is a huge accomplishment.

You can run a time trial or sign up for a short race like a 5k to get an idea of your fitness. Then you can use your time to reasonably estimate how you could currently perform in other distances. Keep in mind that shorter races will be a better predictor of other short races, and longer races will be better predictors of other long races. Once you have a recent race time you can use a calculator to determine your potential race time and training paces. I use VDOT but you can also use the McMillan Running Calculator.

Set a goal that is a reasonable improvement from your current fitness

Newer runners will see larger gains in fitness than more experienced runners. The more progress you make, the harder it will be to keep seeing huge jumps. If you are new to racing you may be able to improve your fitness by 4-6% in a training cycle. This means that if you ran a 4 hour marathon recently that if you train well for 14-20 weeks you could potentially run a 3:46-3:51.

If you have done many marathons and have already made progress in your race times the percent of improvement will likely be less (2-4%) in a training cycle. Even still, a 2% increase for a 4 hour marathon is about 5 minutes, which is great!

Train at your current fitness level

Even if you expect to run 5 minutes faster in your next marathon, it’s important to start training at your current fitness level. A 4 hour marathon requires a 9:09 pace, and a 3:55 marathon requires a 8:58 pace. This can be a big difference when doing long marathon workouts. Shorter intervals will also need to be adjusted to ensure they are run at the correct paces for your fitness.

I like to suggest pace ranges, but also have runners aim for a certain effort during workouts. This can help us to identify what an appropriate pace is for certain workouts while also giving them some guidelines about how fast to run a workout. Once we see some patterns in workouts and paces it helps to figure out if we are on track for that runner’s goal time.

Check in on your fitness during your training cycle

Throughout your training cycle look back on your workouts to see the progress you have made. Repeating similar workouts can help you see if you have made progress and if you are able to increase your speed without a big jump in your effort level.

In the 4-6 weeks before a race you can decide what your goal time will be and practice workouts at that pace. If you can do some key workouts at your goal pace, you will know you are on track for your race goal. Remember that tapering correctly and proper fueling can give you a final boost to help you make a little more improvement in your race time!

You do you determine your running goal time?

You may also like:
Half-Marathon Training Tips for Beginners
5 Strategies for Achieving Your Running Goals this Year
How To Avoid Injury After Completing a Goal Race

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Now it’s time for the Runners’ Roundup! Link up your running and fitness posts below! Join myself, Coach Debbie Runs, Confessions of a Mother Runner and Runs with Pugs to post your favorite running tips, experiences, race and training recaps, workouts, gear, and coaching ideas.

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Comments

  1. Catrina says

    July 16, 2025 at 2:24 am

    Such a helpful breakdown, Lisa – especially the reminder to train at your current fitness, not your goal pace.
    I like to use my Garmin prediction times as a rough guide, though I’ve learned not to take them too seriously.
    Have you ever had an athlete increase their goal mid-cycle because things were going better than expected?

    • Lisa @ Mile By Mile says

      July 16, 2025 at 9:59 am

      Yes, several times! Usually it is when someone starts a training cycle and hasn’t run that distance before or in a while. Then once we see where they are at we see that they can train for a faster time than what we initially thought.

  2. Debbie says

    July 16, 2025 at 9:58 am

    Great information. I think training at your current level is so important. Just because you’re trying to improve your time doesn’t mean your training starts there. It’s a process that needs to be followed.

  3. Darlene S Cardillo says

    July 17, 2025 at 2:58 pm

    Very helpful info. I’m always wondering what my time should be for a race.
    And if you set a proper goal you won’t be disappointed with the results. Hopefully.

  4. Jenn says

    July 17, 2025 at 5:02 pm

    Great advice! It’s definitely time for me to get back to real work and set some good goals. The heat is really just doing me in right now.

Trackbacks

  1. How 2 Working Parents Plan to Train for a Marathon • Mile By Mile says:
    August 6, 2025 at 12:02 am

    […] You may also like: How To Prepare to Train for a Race What It’s Like To Live With Your Running Coach How to Choose a Running Goal Time for a Race […]

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15 mile long run workout this morning! Honestly, e 15 mile long run workout this morning! Honestly, every step of this felt challenging, so I’m pretty happy that I still hit my paces. I’m going to blame it on the humidity. WHY is it still so warm and humid when it’s almost October 😩🥵 I made the mistake of leaving my hair in a ponytail so of course it was a tangled mess by the time I was done. When will I learn? Just glad I got this done to wrap up week 9 of @richmondmarathon training! Is it still humid where you are? #run #marathontraining #richmondmarathon #longrun
Yesterday’s’ long run was 16 miles with 6 x 1 Yesterday’s’ long run was 16 miles with 6 x 1 mile MP/1 mile easy. I took a few hours of PTO in the morning to do this on the trail because I knew wouldn’t be able to do it this weekend. This was my first time on the trail since my marathon last November. It was nice to be back there and the perfect place to do this kind of long run. It was the kind of run where you start thinking “ok cool I just did a tough MP workout” but then you remember you actually need to run 26 miles in a row at that pace. Luckily there’s still 9 more weeks of training…although that doesn’t really sound like that much!
41 miles for the week and got in 2 strength sessions. Taking it easy this weekend other than chasing the kids around for all their activities! #run #marathontraining #longrun
It’s kind of freeing to not care about pace. It It’s kind of freeing to not care about pace. It is a little frustrating to have to plan more time for an easy run. But it’s definitely worth it to recover quicker and feel better on workout days! #run #marathongtraining #easyrun
You know marathon training is starting to get real You know marathon training is starting to get real when you start losing track of what training week it is. I had to check my calendar but this was week 6, so 10 weeks to go! 

I ran the Charles Street 12 last weekend so this week was all about easy miles and recovering from the race. That went well until I went and ran all the hills yesterday followed by walking around a maze and fun park for 5 hours. I got in some strength and mobility this morning and now I’m back to focusing on recovery!

If you’re training for a race how many weeks do you have left?

#run #runner #marathontraining #richmondmarathon
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